Impacts of Climate Change on Rangelands Vegetation under Different Climate Scenarios in Iran

Rangelands contribute to the livelihood of millions of people worldwide and are important providersof ecosystem services. These systems are potentially at risk of climate change; however, the extent andmagnitude of the potential impacts are poorly understood. Climate change and its effects on temperature andrainfall are one of the most important human-environmental issues and have been the subject of many studiesin recent years. In this study, evaluation of the effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation inIran was performed using LARS-WG statistical microscale model, based on the base period (۱۹۸۴-۲۰۱۳) andthree future periods were examined. For this purpose, after initial analysis of data from ۳۳ synoptic stationsusing ۵ general atmospheric circulation models (GCMs), under three emission scenarios A۱B, A۲ and B۱.Also, the arithmetic means method was used for group execution of models and a comparison of means forminimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation parameters was performed by the LSDmethod. The results of this study indicate that the minimum and maximum temperatures will increase in allstations by ۲۰۹۹. However, the amount of precipitation varies according to the station, period and scenarioused and does not follow the same pattern as the temperature parameter. Decrease in rangeland vegetation isdirectly related to climate change. Given that changes in climatic variables can drastically impact biotic andabiotic processes in rangelands, using these results in natural resource and rangeland vulnerability managementcan help with reducing damage and preparing for exposure to the destructive effects of climate change.

Keywords:

Climate variables , Drought , Climate scenarios , Iran