Trend Analysis and Predictions of Coronavirus Disease ۲۰۱۹ in Ethiopia

Background: Coronavirus Disease ۲۰۱۹ (COVID-۱۹) is affecting both lives of millions of peopleand the global economy of the world day by day. This study aimed to determine the trend of COVID-۱۹ and its predictions in Ethiopia.Study Design: This study was conducted based on a time series design.Methods: The required data were collected from the Ethiopian COVID-۱۹ monitoring platformbeginning from the onset of the disease in the country until March ۲۸, ۲۰۲۱. Furthermore, the autoregressiveintegrated moving average models were used on daily-based time series. The Poissonand Negative Binomial regression were also employed to notice the effects of months on thetransmission and disease-related human deaths.Results: The mean daily infection and death of COVID-۱۹ in Ethiopia were ۵۳۳.۴۷±۴۶۶.۶۲ and۷.۴۵±۶.۷۲, respectively. The peaks of infection and deaths in this country were in March, ۲۰۲۱, andAugust, ۲۰۲۰. In addition, the trend of daily new deaths (P=۰.۰۰۰) and infection (P=۰.۰۰۰) wassignificantly increasing. It is expected that around ۱۰ million (۸.۶%) and ۱۳۸,۰۸۴.۶۴ (۰.۱۲%)Ethiopians will be infected and die, respectively.Conclusions: The disease transmission and deaths vary from day to day and month to month.The highest peaks of COVID-۱۹ infection and death were in March ۲۰۲۱ and August ۲۰۲۰. For thenext end of August ۲۰۲۱, the COVID-۱۹ daily new infection, new death, total case, and total deathare expected to be increased. If this epidemic disease is not controlled, Ethiopia will face a severeshortage of hospitals, and the outbreak even becomes worse.

Keywords:

ARIMA , COVID-۱۹ , Ethiopia , Prediction , Trend