Analyzing the Impact of Climate Variations on the yield and yield Risk of Selected Agricultural Products in Kurdistan Province with the Aim of Farm Management Improvement

In this study, the impact of climate variations on the yield and yield risk of wheat, barley (irrigated and rain-fed), and rain-fed chickpea crops in Kurdistan province was investigated. For this purpose, the Just and Pope production function and combined time series data for the years ۲۰۰۱-۲۰۱۲ and for ۵ counties which were the main producers were used. Linear, quadratic linear, Cobb-Douglas, and transcendental functional forms were utilized to estimate the yield and yield risk functions. The results indicate that precipitation and average minimum temperature have a positive effect on crop yield, while average maximum temperature and average wind speed have a negative effect on crop yield. Among them, barley crop is more susceptible to climatic factors compared to other crops. Moreover, precipitation and average minimum temperature have a negative impact on yield risk and act as risk reducers. Average wind speed and average maximum temperature during the growth period are considered as future risk factors and have the greatest impact on the yield risk of irrigated barley crop.

Keywords:

Climate change , Yield , Yield risk , Just and Pope production function