The External Determinants of Inflation: The Case of Iran

The study of determining the factors affecting inflation or consumer price index has been conducted by many macroeconomic economists nationally as well as internationally. In this paper, we assess the external determinants of inflation dynamics in Iran. For this purpose, we use an OLS single equation model and a vector error correction model (VECM). Results of the analysis reveal that money supply, exchange rate, import price index and intensification of sanctions are contributed in raising general price index in the long run. Long-run elasticity of inflation with respect to money supply, exchange rate, effective tariff and import price index are ۰.۲۵, ۰.۱۱۸, ۰.۰۸۷ and ۰.۷۱. Moreover, in every year that the severity of sanctions has increased, inflation increases with amount of ۰.۰۸۴ (or ۸.۴%).Results of OLS single equation model show that only ۲۱% of the domestic inflation variance in short run is explained by the independent variables. Iran's inflation is driven mostly by exchange rate (with one season lag) and effective tariff (with two seasons lag). In the short run, the coefficient of error correction term is -۰.۱۳ suggesting ۱۳ percent annual adjustment towards long run equilibrium. General Price index of last year and unit price of imported goods of two years before are found to be positively related with general price index.

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Keywords: Inflation , External Determinants , Exchange rate , Effective Tariff. JEL Classification: E۳۱ , E۵۲ , E۵۸