The Initial Specification of Viable Futures Contracts: The Use of a New Computational Method of Value at Risk in Iranian Agricultural Commodities Market

The aim of this study is to explore the feasibility of setting up a Commodities Futures Market in Iran. Specifications for the margin requirements, daily price movement limits, the length of expiration intervals, tick sizes and contract size of various potential future contracts are hereby examined. Saffron, pistachio and rice emerge as the three suitable Iranian agricultural commodities. A new computational method of Value at Risk (VaR) optimization model, using a nonparametric sampling approach, is employed to determine the daily margin requirements and daily price fluctuation limits. Expiration intervals are determined by the simulated daily future price with a minimum of volatility. The daily risk free interest rate and the minimum daily average trading value of a participant in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) are used as benchmarks to determine the minimum tick size and contract size for each commodity. These contract specifications are the initially suggested quantities for setting up an agricultural futures market in Iran.

Keywords:

IRAN , Agricultural Futures Market , Contract Specifications , Value at Risk , Sampling Approach