Temporal Modeling of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever in Iran

Introduction : This study was aimed to investigate the effects of risk factors, and environmental and climatic factors a ffecting the occurrence of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) in Iran. We used temporal modeling to predict the future occurrence of the disease in the country . Methods : We analyzed the data of ۱۶۵ CCHF patients from all over Iran (e xcept the districts Zabol and Zahedan in Eastern Iran ) during ۲۰۰۰ to ۲۰۰۶. In this study, ۱۳۰ districts with at least one reported case patient, and ۷۸۰ districts with no reported case patient, as the control group, were included in the model. Logistic regression was used to design the temporal model of the disease at the district-month level nationwide with the purpose of predicting the occurrence of CCHF disease with in one month in a district. Results: The designed model indicated that the history of previous reports of the disease in a district increased the risk of further reports of the disease (odds ratio: ۲.۵۳ (۹۵% CI: ۱.۶۱, ۳.۹۷), (P <۰.۰۰۱)). Moreover, w ith each one-million increase in the urban population, the odds of a report of the disease increased ۲۰% (P =۰.۰۰۳). The odds of the occurrence of the disease were reduced by ۹% w ith the increase in e ach degree of latitude (P =۰.۰۲۸). The odds of the occurrence of the disease increased ۶.۲۵ times w ith the increase in e ach kilometer of altitude (P <۰.۰۰۱). T he disease had a decreasing s ecular trend so that the occurrence of the disease was reduced by ۱۰ % each year (P =۰.۰۰۸). Conclusion : Our findings showed that based on the history of CCHF in districts, and population and geographical features, hot zones may be defined with some acceptable accuracy. J Med Microbiol Infec Dis, ۲۰۱۴, ۱ (۲): ۷ pages.

Keywords:

Hemorrhagic Fever Virus Crimean-Congo , Iran , Temporal Modeling