The prediction of increase or decrease of electricity costusing fuzzy expert systems

Expert systems are computer programs which are designed to perform the job of an expert, and also to dramatize their behavior. An expert system is important with the aim of implementing computer systems rather than human beings in decision making. The energy of strategic goods is considered in international levels. Activities of the government and organizations depend on the product and its related markets. In fact, the prediction of electric load is considered as the first square in decision making, and planning power systems. Since performing these decisions is time consuming and requires huge financial budgets, prediction of electric load can be considered as a necessary and vital issue in power systems. According to the examination of country’s electric importing and exporting and the load peak of annual electric usage , the purpose is to predict the occurred electric load and with the application of statistical information related to the used load peak, the import and export of electric power in the recent years, this system will have the capacity to check the electric cost and will predict the increase or decrease of it. The performance of the fuzzy expert system was evaluated using an receiver operating characteristic curve, which provides the accuracy of 87% . In order to test the correctness of system function, the analysis of receiver operating characteristic curves are used

Keywords:

Expert system , Electric Load Forecast , Fuzzy expert system , Electricity cost , Peak load forecasting