Probabilistic LMP Prediction Considering Load Uncertainty Using Two-Point Estimate Method

In electricity markets, besides LMP calculation, finding the load levels in which LMP suddenly changes due to generation and transmission constraints would be profitable formarket participants with their decision and to reducing risks. In this paper, the LMP variations due to load change and also thereason for LMP step changes in critical load levels are studied. Since there is always load uncertainties or load forecast errors in power systems, in this paper, a probabilistic method ispresented to predict load levels in which LMP changes suddenly, the method takes topology and physical constraintsinto consideration using Two Point Estimate method (2PEM). The proposed method has been tested on the 5-bus PJM network.

Keywords:

Electricity market , locational marginal price (LMP) , point estimate methods (PEM) , probabilistic optimal power flow (P-OPF)