Electricity demand estimation in Iranian industrial sector

This study presents application of particle swarm optimization (PSO) method to estimate and predict electricitydemand in Iranian industrial sectors. The economic indicators used in this study are number of customers, gross domesticproduct (GDP), electricity production and price. The models which developed in two forms (exponential and linear) areapplied to the electricity demand of industrial sector. These models can be used to estimate electricity demand in thefuture by optimizing parameter values. Electricity consumption in Iranian industrial sector from 1981 to 2005 is consideredas the case of this study. The available data is partly used for finding the optimal, or near optimal, values of the weightingparameters (1981-1999) and partly for testing the models (2000–2005). For the best results of PSO relative erroraverages were 1.03% and 1.69% for and . Electricity consumption is forecasted up to year 2030.

Keywords:

Particle swarm optimization , Electricity demand , Projection