شبیه سازی و پیش بینی برخی از متغیرهای اقلیمی توسط مدل چندگانه خطی SDSM و مدل های گردش عمومی جو (مطالعه موردی: حوزه آبخیز بار نیشابور)

One of the weaknesses of GCMs model are large spatial scale in  simulated of climatic variables that for hydrological studies and water resources in the range of watershed area are not sufficiently accurate. So should by using the different techniques that downscale. Then downscaled outputs are used for assessing the impact of climate change on hydrological studies. Among downscaling approaches, statistical methods are of great importance among hydrologists due to their easy and quick performance. In this study, statistical model (SDSM) was evaluated for simulating and predicting minimum and maximum temperature, precipitations in the bar Nayshabur watershed. For executing SDSM model outputs of CGCM۱ and Hadcm۳ models were applied. Daily data of minimum and maximum temperatures precipitations for the basic period (۱۹۷۰-۲۰۰۰) were simulated under three A۱, A۲ and B۱ scenarios. Based on Statistical parameters, outputs of Hadcm۳ model under A۲ more compatible with the basic period. Obtained results showed that during ۲۰۱۰-۲۰۳۹, ۲۰۴۰-۲۰۶۹and ۲۰۷۰-۲۰۹۹, the average temperature ۰.۰۱, ۰.۳ and ۰.۶, the average minimum temperature ۰.۳, ۰.۵ and۱. ۴ and the average maximum temperature ۰.۷, ۱.۴ and ۲.۷ ° C will increase compared to the basic period in the studied basin. Also, the results showed that within three studied periods, the average rainfall will decrease ۶, ۱۰ and ۱۷ mm respectivity comparing to the basic period.

شبیه سازی و پیش بینی برخی از متغیرهای اقلیمی توسط مدل چندگانه خطی SDSM و مدل های گردش عمومی جو (مطالعه موردی: حوزه آبخیز بار نیشابور) Keywords:

مدل های گردش عمومی جو , ریزمقیاس سازی آماری , تولید کننده آب و هوا , حوزه آبخیز بار نیشابور