Integrating dynamic system analysis and cellular automata for land use change assessment in Isfahan urban area

Rapid urban expansion is one of the most important problems in developing countries that is a major driving force of environmental problems in urban and suburban areas. Due to the complexity of urban areas and the role of different parameters on urbanization, understanding of urbanization and causes and effects of it, is essential for sustainable urban planning and management.The aim of this paper is simulating urban growth in Isfahan urban area and analysis the driving forces accelerating this expansion. Cellular automata model and system dynamic model were used for predicting of urban expansion, driving forces analysis and urban expansion scenario modelling. Landsat TM images of different periods (2000, 2010 and 2015) were used for land use change simulation and urban expansion scenario development.The results suggest that annual rate of urban growth in Isfahan is about 2% from 2015 to 2035 and spatially this expansion is directed to east and north. The road networks, establishment of economic sectors around the roads and the open areas, suitable for construction, are the main spatially driving forces, and population growth, economic growth rate (GDP) and employment rate are the main economic-social driving forces of urban expansion.Due to negative effects of this urban expansion on the natural environment, urban land use planning policies must consider different issues such as employment and economic growth rate next to the land-use plans for achieving urban sustainability.

Integrating dynamic system analysis and cellular automata for land use change assessment in Isfahan urban area Keywords:

Dynamic system model , Cellular automata , land use change , Isfahan region