Review of Probabilistic forecasting approach in Futures Studies

The traditional forecasting and analysis techniques turned out to be inadequate for futures studies. Therefore, for forecasting and analysis new combined qualitative and quantitative techniques are developed. In futures studies, probabilistic forecasting approach is developed and advocated by futurists. Probabilistic forecasting approach includes two main combined techniques, namely trend impact analysis and cross impact analysis. There are two major methodologies for cross impact analysis, one is Interactive Cross Impact Simulation (INTERAX ) and the other is Interactive future Simulations (IFS). We review these probabilistic forecasting methodologies and present advantage and disadvantage of each method. Finally, in practical examples we show how to apply the introduced probabilistic forecasting tools.

Keywords:

probabilistic , forecasting , trend impact , cross impact , INTERAX , simulation , IFS.