Effect of Climate changes on distribution and habitat suitability of the critically endangered newt, Neurergus derjugini Nesterov, 1916 (Urodela: Salamandridae): the Last Interglacial to contemporary period

Study of the climate variability in the past and present, and correlating those with changes in the distribution range of critically endangered species has attracted considerable research interest. The genus Neurergus consists of four recognized species, of which N. crocatus, N. derjugini, N. kaiseri are documented from Iran. In the present study, I modeled with MaxEnt approach the potential distribution areas and determined the suitable habitats in the past (the Last Interglacial [LIG], and mid-Holocene [MH]) as well as the contemporary distribution of the critically endangered newt, N. derjugini Nesterov, 1916. Models of the species indicated good fit by the average high area under the curve (AUC) values (0.997± 0.001). Precipitation of the coldest quarter of the year, and precipitation seasonality made important contributions to the LIG and MH, as well as precipitation of coldest quarter, slope, temperature annual range, and precipitation seasonality of the year variables constructed important contributions to the contemporary distribution of N. derjugini. I conclude that these variables form a natural barrier for species dispersal. The LIG and MH models indicated a larger suitable area than the contemporary distribution.

Keywords:

Neurergus derjugini , Climate condition , Suitable habitat , Potential distribution