ارتباط متقابل تولیدات کشاورزی و شاخص‌های محیط زیستی با تأکید بر تغییرات اقلیمی

Quantification of the adverse effects of climatic and environmental indices on agricultural production is quite important in agrometeorology and economics sciences. The aim of current study is to investigate the interaction carbon dioxide emissions, as an indicator of environmental degradation, and crop production. For this purpose, panel data for ۳۱ provinces of Iran during the period of ۱۹۷۷-۲۰۱۸ using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model were applied. Based on the statistical analysis, the negative coefficient of agricultural value added term in long and short term periods, i.e. -۰.۰۲۷ and -۰.۳۱۲, respectively, the Kuznets environmental curve (EKC) hypothesis was confirmed in the agricultural sector of study regions. The results showed that, almost ۹۰% of the agricultural production shocks might be mitigated over one period (e.g. growing season) and will return to their long-term equilibrium levels in less than two periods. The coefficients of precipitation and temperature terms in greenhouse gas emissions equation were determined -۰.۰۳۸ and -۰.۳۰۲ respectively, indicating the significant impact of climatic variables on emission. Further studies on interaction of copping pattern and machinery utilization on emission and agricultural production are recommended.

Keywords:

ارزش افزوده , دی‌اکسیدکربن , گازهای گلخانه‌ای , مدل ARDL , نظریه کوزنتس