Rainfall-Runoff Modeling and Analysis under CMIP۶ Scenariosby ANFIS; Case Study: Zayandehrud River

Over the past decades, hydrological modeling has become an essential tool in water resources management.Among various types of models, Data-driven modeling has gained more attention since they require fewerdata and are relatively easy to implement and understand. This study utilizes an ANFIS model to simulatenatural upstream runoff in the Zayandehrud basin. The ANFIS models with precipitation and temperatureas inputs are trained and tested on the Chelgard-Gale Shahrokh sub-basin. The results in both the train andtest sections highlight the importance and strength of ANFIS systems in process of modeling complexhydrological systems. Furthermore, for future projection, downscaled and bias-corrected precipitation andtemperature data of CMIP۶ scenarios are used as inputs to calculate runoff projections in three mainimportant scenarios of CMIP۶ named SSP۱۲۶, SSP۲۴۵, and SSP۵۸۵. The results of projections of SSPscenarios indicate an increase in temperature in winter seasons which diminishes precipitations in snowfallform and increases rainfall precipitation. Moreover, runoff peaks might shift to winter months instead ofspring and the number of flash floods and their intensity may increase due to increased rainfall precipitation.

Keywords:

ANFIS , Climate Change , CMIP۶ , Data-driven , rainfall-runoff modeling