Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks onGross Domestic Product in Iran Using theMarkov Switching Model

The role of oil shocks as factors in economic growth of a country isimportant. With little reflection on the Iran economic structure and other majoroil exporter countries that have a strong bond to the proceeds of oil sales ،thisis a strong suspicion that the origin of the oil shock is caused by economicshocks. Purpose of this article is determining and solving of Iran cycles andeffect of oil price fluctuation on these cycles using Markov switching model. Inline with the main objective of research, extracting of oil price shocks by usingMarkov switching model and estimation long run relation by using the patternaccumulation Johansen Juselius estimated by using of quarterly data 1988(1) -2008(2). The results suggest that hypothesis of symmetry of positive andnegative oil shocks on production have been rejected. So we can infer that theeffects of negative and positive shocks on production are different

Keywords:

Oil Price Shocks , Gross Domestic Product in Iran , MarkovSwitching Model , Johansen Juselius