Probabilistic Assessment of Strong Earthquake Recurrence in the NW Segment of the North Tabriz Fault, Iran
Publish place: 2nd International Conference and Fifth National Conference on Civil Engineering, Architecture, Art and Urban Design
Publish Year: 1396
نوع سند: مقاله کنفرانسی
زبان: English
View: 650
This Paper With 10 Page And PDF Format Ready To Download
- Certificate
- من نویسنده این مقاله هستم
این Paper در بخشهای موضوعی زیر دسته بندی شده است:
استخراج به نرم افزارهای پژوهشی:
شناسه ملی سند علمی:
ICCACS02_054
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 25 آذر 1396
Abstract:
In this paper, the time-varying hazard of rupture of the northwestern segment of the North Tabriz Fault is evaluated using a statistical method and a recurrence time distribution, allowing for data and model parameter values uncertainties. The North Tabriz Fault is a main seismogenic fault in Northwestern Iran. The conditional probability of rupture of the northwestern segment of the North Tabriz Fault using observed data of paleoseismic investigations and luminescence analyses is estimated to be 11.11%, in the next 100yr, under Brownian Passage Time recurrence time distribution. The sensitivity of results to the value of long-term slip rate data is examined. It is observed that the present estimate is very sensitive to the values of the long-term slip rate and its uncertainty.
Keywords:
Authors
Zahra Monfared
M.S.c in Earthquake engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran,
Hamid Zafarani
Associate Professor at International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology ,Iran,
Jamshid Farjoodi
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering at University of Tehran, Iran,