Estimation and forecast of carbon dioxide emission in Iran: introducing a new hybrid modeling

Today, an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption has led to the increased carbon dioxide emissions, pollution rise, and environmental degradation. In the present paper, the effect of GDP and energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions (as a measure of environmental pollution) is investigated for Iran during the period 1980-2014 using a new hybrid model; i.e., a combination of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Fuzzy Linear Regression (FLR). Estimation and forecast of carbon dioxide emissions showed that GDP and energy consumption has a positive and significant correlation with carbon dioxide emissions in short run. Also, the carbon dioxide emission indicated a low elasticity toward GDP and low energy consumption. Finally, the results showed that the Fuzzy Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) is more accurate than the initial patterns for predicting carbon dioxide emissions.

Keywords:

Forecast , Carbon Dioxide , Fuzzy Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag , Iran