Investigating the Shimmer’s Puzzle in Some Developing Economies

This study aims at empirically investigating the behavior of the unemployment, job vacancies and productivity in a number of developing countries (including Brazil, Bulgaria, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Jamaica, Mexico, Peru, Slovenia, Thailand, Turkey and Iran) for the period ۱۹۸۰- ۲۰۱۹ in order to identify the possibility of a Shimmer’s puzzle for them. It is shown that as to the statistical characteristics of the labor market variables cycles, the degree of correlation between productivity and unemployment and between productivity and job vacancies has changed significantly. While this correlation often has the expected sign (negative for unemployment and positive for job vacancies), it also includes exceptions. It can somehow confirm the limitations of technology shocks as the only leading mechanism in the DMP model. There is also a relatively strong positive correlation between productivity fluctuations and unemployment suggesting the DMP model, with neutral technical shocks driving force, as an appropriate modeling framework, or at least, a framework that is not overridden by the data. However, the findings indicate no strong positive relationship between productivity and job vacancy.

Keywords:

Shimmer’s Puzzle , Job Vacancies , Unemployment , DMP Model , Technology Shock